Virtual Parallels
EU and Russia: Rivalry or Cooperation?
EU and Russia: Rivalry or Cooperation?
The Rivalry between Russia and the EU Has Manifested Itself, but Not in Relation to Armenia
- For many years a number of post-Soviet states strived for EUAA membership. However, when it could have become a reality, both Armenia and Ukraine officially refused to sign the agreements. Does Russia have so great an influence on Armenia and Ukraine?
- The influence of Russia on the post-Soviet states, by all means, is rather substantial. One can say that it is, to a great extent, determining, but at the same time it is different for these countries. It stems from the fact that the countries vary in their geographic positions, sizes, and the levels of cooperation with other leading powers of the world. Russia applies various leverages on Armenia and Ukraine. In the case of Armenia it is the security, in the case of Ukraine it is economy. The point is that Ukraine in terms of economy is closely tied with Russia. In the early 90s the Armenian economy collapsed due to the war, blockade and energy crisis. As a consequence, all the Soviet-type heavy industry came to a standstill. The present-day economy of Armenia has close ties with Europe. Interestingly, our major investor is Russia, but the major trade partner is Europe. We may say that Russian rubles are being “europeanized” through Armenia. The Russians are building the aluminum plant, but the production is being exported to Europe. This is an ongoing process. As for Ukraine, all the Soviet-type heavy industry (pipes, metals, helicopters) are still being produced and can be exported only to CIS countries and to Russia, in particular. The economy in Ukraine is structured in a way that it imports from Europe and exports to Russia. Roughly speaking, Russia is the main market for Ukrainian products. If Russia stops buying goods, Ukraine will face a collapse similar to the one we had in the 90s. Russia can exert influence on Armenian through economy as well, e.g. by gas prices. Of course, Russia imports large amounts of goods to Armenia; however this is of little importance as they can be easily replaced by products imported from elsewhere. Armenia has the Karabakh conflict, while Ukrainians don’t have a conflict of the kind. Russia is irreplaceable for Armenia for defense. No other country can guarantee our security. EU member states do not provide security; they are mere consumers of what EU can provide them with. NATO guarantees their security. Security is top priority, so whenever there is a risk of crossing the red line, any discussion of any matter is immediately terminated. When I need bread I go to the baker’s, when I need aspirin I go to the drugstore, not the other way round. If I need to keep peace in the region, I will turn to the Russians. It’s of no use asking Europeans for weapons. It is the same as going to the drugstore for bread. However, if I want progress I will, for sure, turn to Europe, because the Russian and Kazakhi social structure development models are far from the ideal one.
- At the Vilnius Summit the President of Azerbaijan had a meeting with the Presidents of Ukraine and Belarus. Have they developed a common position on EU membership? What were the goals of Armenia and Ukraine at the summit?
- Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Belarus could not possibly develop a common position on the Vilnius summit. Only Ukraine can sign an agreement, the rest can only initial it. Azerbaijan has taken a neutral position. It has never expressed a wish to join the Customs Union. Azerbaijan attended the summit because it was devoted not to the association agreement, but to the Eastern Partnership. Our participation was provided by the fact that we have always been and still are a member of the Eastern Partnership program. The Vilnius Summit didn’t bring about a historical shift, nor did it affect these 4 countries. The Vilnius Summit is a part of a process which started long ago, since these countries gained independence. We have joined the UN, the Council of Europe, the OSCE, and will join a couple of more international organizations and partnerships in future. After the Vilnius Summit there will be many more frameworks within which Armenia, Ukraine and other states will maintain relations with EU to a reasonable extent. It was necessary to mark that fact during the Vilnius Summit. Armenia has been working on this document for 3.5 years. It had been approved by both parties. Although it was not signed, it still exists, so it was necessary to mark that a work was done and will develop in future in all possible directions.
- Can we say that the process of pushing the countries to reject the EU Association Agreements only highlighted the rivalry between Russia and EU? Is Russia compelled to defend itself from the EU expansion or is Russia simply Europhobic?
- You can put in as you wish; however, “pushing” is a word from newspaper language. There is such a thing as interaction and all states, even the most powerful ones, have to take into consideration the interests of other countries. There is a rivalry between Russia and EU; however, this was not the case with Armenia, as we in an economic aspect are of little value to Russia. Armenia, to some extent, became one of the instruments to influence Ukraine. The events of September 3 have nothing to do with us. We have not mentioned Georgia so far, and it is no accident. Russia has practically no means of exerting pressure on Georgia. In the conflict with Russia Georgia has lost virtually everything. Armenia would have been in the same position if it had lost Karabagh. Armenia was a means of influencing the situation in general. However, Armenia was not the case. There is a political game in which Russia tries to win back all the post-Soviet territories. There can be no EU expansion; at least, EU has not made such suggestions to these countries. It is not so easy to become an EU member. Turkey has been negotiating to join EU for 50 years already. Joining EU is a major problem – financial, technical, and organizational. At first, EU accepted 10 countries all at once for political reasons. Then joined Romania and Bulgaria, with which EU has problems till now. But Romania is twice smaller than Ukraine and 4 times smaller than Bulgaria. There are only 3 countries (Iceland, Switzerland and Norway) which would have been an acquisition rather than a problem for the EU, but none of them has expressed any desire to join the EU. The rest are simply consumers of what the EU can provide them with and they cost a lot, and this goes beyond financial aspects.
- Would it be possible for Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach peace agreement through the EU Association Agreement? Would it benefit to the partnership between Russia and EU?
- Azerbaijan cannot become an associative partner. AA has nothing to do with the Karabakh conflict. It is a framework for free movement of goods, services and people at the European market and also for the alignment of legislation in these states with that of the European ones. That’s all. Regulation of conflicts is the business of another union, OSCE, which has nothing to do with AA. Unfortunately, the Armenian idea of different political platform is faulty. They see it as a fairytale opposition of the villain and the hero, of good and evil.